This Revolution Will Change Everything
by John L. Petersen

In physical terms, there is no more fundamental and basic influence on the way we live and behave than the availability and form of energy that we use.

Every aspect of our lives, food, clothing, shelter, and transportation—and therefore every derivative activity (work, government, recreation, etc.)—changes when the affordable source of energy changes. The modern world has been directly enabled by the discovery, development, and availability of petroleum, for example. When that era ends, many other ways of doing things will also necessarily end.

Thomas Kuhn, influential philosopher of science, famously stated that new paradigms in science emerge only when the leadership of the old generation dies, leaving space for the emergence of the new ideas. What he was saying is that the incumbent system fights new ideas— regardless of whether it is a system of science, education, or spirituality. In all cases, the current generation has vested interests (reputations, income streams, influence, etc.) in the present way things operate. These individuals and organizations have devoted a great deal of time and wealth to building and shaping the present paradigm and would lose a great deal if their ideas, processes, investments, and infrastructure were suddenly deemed obsolete. Like white corpuscles rushing to attack invading germs that are advancing through a break in the integrity of the skin, those with reputations and resources immediately respond to threatening new ideas that could potentially upset what they have worked so hard to put in place.

But Kuhn was describing the dynamics of evolutionary change—change from within. What we’re experiencing is revolutionary change that is driven as much by uncontrollable externalities as by internal system dynamics. If rapid climate change sweeps away the assumptions of the past, everyone will have to rethink how things are done. If we begin running out of oil, everyone will be in the business of finding new energy sources. And similarly, if the financial system collapses of its own weight, space will quickly be made for new ideas, and these are just conventional scenarios. If alien life comes by to introduce itself or solar cosmic rays turn on strings of dormant human DNA, suddenly providing us with radical new capabilities—well, all bets are off and new ideas will really prevail!

That’s what I think is happening. We are fully into the most significant global revolution in the history of our species. We are about to watch our world turn sideways as the result of the collision of both conventional and unconventional forces, and one big story in that shift will be energy.

In many cases, the new ideas that rise to fill the void produced by large-scale change have their origins long before the environment finally presents the opening that allows their proliferation. (Interesting new ideas about alternative financial systems and economies, for example, are now being formed in anticipation of the collapse of the present financial system.) More than likely, the system fights those insurgent concepts when they first show up, finding them threatening. Nevertheless, over the years some small groups continue to develop and refine the ideas, trying to ready them for an opening. The coming months and years are going to present such an opportunity.

John L. Petersen is president and founder of the Arlington Institute, a nonprofit, futureoriented research institute. He writes about high impact surprises – wild cards – and the process of surprise anticipation. John was a Naval flight officer in the U.S. Navy and Navy Reserve and is a decorated veteran of both the Vietnam and Persian Gulf Wars. He has served in senior positions for a number of presidential political campaigns and was an elected delegate to the Democratic National Convention in 1984. John’s books include The Road to 2015, Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Wild Cards, Big Future Surprises, and A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change. www.arlingtoninstitute.org.